Released on March 9, 2009
The March forecast of potential spring runoff levels shows limited areas where runoff will be an issue for this year. This assumes a typical rate of melt and normal spring precipitation. Above normal precipitation prior to runoff and a faster than normal melt could result in significantly higher runoff.
Exceptions to the normal runoff would be areas around Kindersley, Leader and Swift Current with a below normal runoff predicted.
High water levels may occur in the East Poplar River Basin, Long Creek Basin and/or the Souris River Basin above Rafferty Reservoir. This may include flooding of low-lying agricultural lands in the Weyburn and Estevan area. Cookson, Boundary, Rafferty and Alameda reservoirs are all expected to fill this year.
There is also above average winter precipitation in the Saskatoon/North Battleford areas, and below average winter precipitation in the Hudson Bay and Lake Diefenbaker/Swift Current areas.
In northern Saskatchewan, the runoff potential is generally near normal with the exception of above normal runoff projected in the Key Lake/Cluff Lake/Stony Rapids area. Flow on the Churchill River continues to gradually recede. Releases from Reindeer Lake will continue in preparation for the 2009 runoff.
Flows in the North Saskatchewan are at normal levels for this time of year, while flow from Alberta on the South Saskatchewan is below normal. Snowpack accumulations in the mountain headwaters of both rivers are well below normal. Because of the anticipated low inflow, Lake Diefenbaker will not be drawn down as low as usual. Lake Diefenbaker is not projected to fill this year.
This forecast is based on soil moisture conditions at freeze-up, existing snowpack accumulations as of the end of February, and assumes average climate conditions to the end of spring runoff. This forecast is based on very limited precipitation data and should be used as a general guide for large areas. Local conditions may vary significantly.
The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority issues a monthly Provincial Streamflow Forecast which describes the general water supply conditions in the province and provides forecasts of expected flow conditions and lake levels. The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority will update forecasts in April or earlier as conditions change.
The full March forecast is online at www.swa.ca under Water Management/Provincial Forecast.
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For more information, contact:
Doug Johnson
Saskatchewan Watershed Authority
Moose Jaw
Phone: 306-694-3959
Email: doug.johnson@swa.ca
Cell: 306-631-0740