Released on March 6, 2008
The March forecast of potential spring runoff levels in the province has been released. The forecast is based on soil moisture conditions at freeze-up, existing snowpack accumulations as of the end of February, and assumes normal climate conditions will occur between now and the end of spring runoff.
The current winter snowpack conditions vary across the grainbelt region of the province from well-below normal in the southwest, to below normal in the southeast, to above normal in northern areas. In the boreal forest to as far north as Reindeer and Cree Lakes, the snowpack is generally normal to above normal. Further north and west, the snowpack is below normal for this time of the year.
"In northern areas of the grainbelt, above average winter precipitation, combined with a wet fall has created the potential for another high spring runoff in 2008," Minister responsible for the Saskatchewan Watershed Authority Nancy Heppner said. "But overall for that general area, the 2008 runoff is forecast to be lower than in 2007, with conditions that may vary locally. The actual runoff will be dependent on the additional winter snowfall accumulation and the timing of the spring runoff."
The area for the highest potential spring runoff is a triangular area stretching northward from Saskatoon to the boreal forest, westward to the Alberta border and eastward in a line through Nipawin. An above normal runoff is expected through the boreal forest area and as far north as Cree Lake.
High water levels are expected on both Fishing and Wakaw Lakes, though not as high as the 2007 peak water levels. Water levels on the lakes in the northwest part of the grainbelt, north of the Battlefords are expected to be similar to 2007 peak water levels. Similarly, water levels on Waldsea Lake are expected to be close to or slightly above peak 2007 water levels. Water levels on Lenore, Houghton and Deadmoose Lakes are expected to be higher than in 2007, as these lakes were still well-above normal level in the fall, following the last two high runoff years.
The south-western areas of the grainbelt are expected to have a well-below normal runoff based on a dry fall and well-below normal winter precipitation to date. Storms in February did not contribute enough snow to raise the runoff potential. The primary concern, especially in south western and south central areas, is a low runoff resulting in water supply shortages.
The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority issues a monthly Provincial Streamflow Forecast which describes the general water supply conditions in the province and provides forecasts of expected flow conditions and lake levels. The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority will update forecasts in April or earlier as conditions change.
The Spring Runoff Potential map for March 6, 2008, is attached. The full March forecast is online at www.swa.ca under Water Management/Provincial Forecast.
-30-
For more information, contact:
Doug Johnson
Saskatchewan Watershed Authority
Moose Jaw
Phone: 306-694-3959
Email: doug.johnson@swa.ca
Cell: 306-631-0740